Tipping Points: Mapping and Understanding the Impact of Debt on Household Financial Well-Being and Economic Growth
Original Conference Held:
June 9, 2016
The Private Debt Project and the Center for Household Financial Stability of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank are pleased to present here the papers from their conference on, "Tipping Points: Mapping and Understanding the Impact of Debt on Household Financial Well-Being and Economic Growth." The Conference was the first of two research symposia focusing on the economics of household debt in the United States. The overall purpose of this joint effort is to advance a better understanding of when debt reaches a "tipping point" for different households and for the economy as a whole—i.e., when it moves from being a positive contribution to household financial well-being to a negative drag on well-being and when it moves from making a positive contribution to economic growth to being a threat to growth.
Table of Contents
I. Ray Boshara, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
II. William R. Emmons and Lowell R. Ricketts, Center for Household Financial Stability, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
"The Demographics of Loan Delinquency: Tipping Point or Tip of the Iceberg?"
III. Carlos Garriga, Lowell R. Ricketts, Don E. Schlagenhauf, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
"Identifying Tipping Points in Consumer Liabilities Using High-Frequency Data"
IV. Daniel Alpert, Westwood Capital and Century Foundation, and Robert Hockett, Cornell Law School and the Century Foundation.
"The Debt Goes On: A Post-Crisis "Progress" Report"
V. Neil Bhutta, Federal Reserve Board Benjamin J. Keys, Harris School of Public Policy University of Chicago.
"Interest Rates and Equity Extraction During the Housing Boom"
VI. Daniel H. Cooper, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Barry Z. Cynamon, Center for Household Financial Stability, and Steven M. Fazzari, Washington University in St. Louis.
"The Sustainability of U.S. Household Finances"
VII. Paul Willen, Chris Foote, and Lara Loewenstein, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
"Cross-Sectional Patterns of Mortgage Debt during the Housing Boom: Evidence and Implications"
Joshua Freedman is currently a visiting scholar in the College of Humanities and Development Studies at China Agricultural University in Beijing, where he is researching and writing about social and economic issues in China. He is currently working on a research paper about social insurance and eldercare programs and an article on the historical community of Chinese Jews in central China. Before coming to China, Josh was a policy analyst in the Economic Growth Program at the New America Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, DC. Josh graduated with a B.A. in Public Policy (concentration: Ethics) from Stanford University in 2011, where he received the Ann C. Seminara award for Outstanding Senior in Public Policy and the Outstanding Senior Practicum award for a project on high school graduation standards in California.
Diana set up Enodo Economics, an independent macroeconomic forecasting company, in 2016 to untangle complexity, challenge the consensus and make sense of the future.
For 16 years prior she worked at Lombard Street Research, most recently as their chief economist and head of research. In that role, she set the agenda for the firm’s team of economists and strategists while conducting her own global analysis. She joined LSR after completing her master’s degree in economics in 2000, and over the years has covered a wide range of developing and developed economies. Diana became a director of LSR in 2005 and headed the firm’s UK service from then until 2009. Between 2010 and 2013 she was based in Hong Kong overseeing LSR’s expansion in Asia.
She is best known for her analysis of China, including the book she co-wrote in 2011, ‘The American Phoenix – and why China and Europe will struggle after the coming slump’. Diana writes regular opinion pieces for the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, etc. She has extensive global experience engaging with all manner of audiences and has made frequent television appearances, including on BBC’s Newsnight on the day that Lehman Brothers collapsed.
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